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M&E · Adaptation

Operational implementation

Monitoring and evaluation of hazard, vulnerability, and risk

The M&E module places climate risk on the map of the country and on the sector's infrastructure, so a baseline can be compared with future scenarios instead of leaving the analysis in a report no one reopens.

Updated

The question it answers

Knowing that the climate is changing is not enough. A sector team needs to know where hazard meets a specific vulnerability, and whether that condition worsens or improves against the reference period. The module turns that question into maps, dashboards, and deltas.

The framework is IPCC AR6: risk = hazard × vulnerability. Vulnerability is read by component — ecosystems, agriculture and food security, human habitat, water, disaster risk, infrastructure, health, and energy — so a weakness is not hidden behind an average.

  1. Hazard × Vulnerability (sensitivity · adaptive capacity) = Risk
  2. Baseline 1990–2021 → SSP2-4.5 / SSP3-7.0 → absolute and % Δ
  3. Municipalities · basins · infrastructure
Method diagram

Territory, basins, and infrastructure

The territorial reading covers Colombia's 1,121 municipalities and the basins used in the analysis. Scenarios come from CMIP6: the 1990–2021 reference period and SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 projections on horizons through the end of the century. Change is expressed as an absolute and percentage delta against the baseline.

The sectoral viewer carries the same logic onto mining and energy infrastructure: hydrocarbons, mining, generation — hydro, thermal, wind, solar, and non-interconnected zones — and networks. Risk does not stay on an abstract municipality. It can be read over the activity.

Alongside the viewers are dashboards by scenario and period, climate-variable comparison, and a structured register for documenting adaptation actions: type, sector, territory, period, and indicator. This page does not present that register as a public procedure.

What it is not

It is not an operational weather forecast, a risk certification for a project, or an official publication of scenarios. It is the implementation of the monitoring and evaluation module inside the sector climate information system. Adaptation decisions remain with the team using the evidence.

Parts of the module

Territorial viewer

Municipal map of hazard, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, vulnerability, and risk, compared with the baseline.

  • Municipality and basin
  • Filter by component and scenario
  • Download with geographic context

Scenarios

The 1990–2021 reference is compared with SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0. It is not presented as a single future.

  • CMIP6 / IPCC AR6
  • Horizons through 2100
  • Absolute and percentage deltas

Sectoral reading

Climate hazard is observed over the mining and energy chain, not only over administrative boundaries.

  • Hydrocarbons and mining
  • Generation and networks
  • Non-interconnected zones

Terms in the module

Hazard
The climate condition that can affect a place or an activity. On its own, it is not the risk.
Vulnerability
Sensitivity and adaptive capacity. It is aggregated by component so the average does not erase the problem.
Risk
Hazard × vulnerability, under the IPCC AR6 framework used in the module.
Delta
Absolute or percentage change of an indicator against the 1990–2021 reference period.
EPSG:9377
Colombia's official reference frame (MAGNA-SIRGAS 2018) used for the geographic information.

Frequently asked questions

What is M&E in climate change?

Monitoring and evaluation. Here it means tracking climate hazard, vulnerability, and risk, and being able to compare a scenario with the baseline, not only publishing a static map.

Which scenarios does the module use?

The IPCC AR6 CMIP6 framework: a 1990–2021 reference and SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 projections on horizons through the end of the century.

Does it cover the whole country?

The territorial reading is built on Colombia's 1,121 municipalities and on the basins in the analysis. There is also a reading over mining and energy infrastructure.

Does GearsMap certify a project's risk?

No. The module organizes evidence for technical teams. It does not replace a project risk study or an official adaptation decision.

This page describes GearsMap's implementation work. It is not an official publication of the Ministry of Mines and Energy, it does not imply institutional endorsement, and it does not provide access to the system. Operational data, internal infrastructure, and reserved contract information are not published.

Does your organization have territorial data it still cannot use?

The same craft — sources, geometry, indicators, and an interface a team can inherit — applies to climate, operations, or territory. Tell us the hard question.

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